Case:
Forecasting trends to drive vaccination uptake in Denmark

Understanding who accesses private healthcare – and why – is critical to improving public health outcomes. We conducted a comprehensive analysis for a global healthcare company to uncover the sociodemographic and socioeconomic patterns behind Denmark’s private market uptake of the chickenpox vaccine among children and adolescents.

Here’s an overview of what we delivered:

• Mapped private chickenpox vaccination coverage across Denmark by age, region, and municipality.
• Identified key sociodemographic factors, like education and income, driving uptake.
• Highlighted geographic disparities, with urban areas outperforming rural municipalities.
• Forecasted vaccination trends over the next decade to guide strategic planning.
• Recommended targeted outreach strategies for under-vaccinated groups, such as rural families.

The Challenge

Vaccination uptake is shaped by various factors, including income, education, and regional differences. Our client needed to understand these dynamics to improve the adoption of their private-market chickenpox vaccine. The focus was on children and adolescents in Denmark. Specifically, the client sought answers to these questions:

• How do parental education and household income influence vaccine decisions?
• Which sociodemographic traits are most predictive of vaccine uptake?
• How do uptake patterns differ across municipalities and regions?
• How can these insights guide future strategies for increasing vaccine adoption?

While existing data provided an overview of vaccination rates, there was limited insight into the “why” behind these trends. This made it challenging for the client to tailor their strategies effectively.

“Our client wanted a complete picture,” says Andreas Høiberg Bentsen, Chief Advisor Real-World Evidence at Signum. “Knowing who receives the vaccine—and what influences their decision—would allow them to focus their efforts where they could make the most impact.”

Andreas reflects on the process:
“Our work bridges the gap between raw data and strategic action. By understanding both the present and the future, we give our clients a roadmap to strengthen their market position.”

The Results

The study provided the client with insights that have broad implications for their business, patients, and the healthcare system:

• Strengthened market position
  The analysis revealed a 528% increase in private-market chickenpox vaccination coverage among children and adolescents from 2019 to 2022, with urban municipalities like Copenhagen achieving the highest uptake rates. This granular understanding of growth trends enables the client to prioritize high-potential regions while addressing underperforming areas​.
• Improved patient access
  By identifying patterns of under-vaccination, particularly in rural areas and lower-income families, the client can work toward addressing disparities. This ensures that more children receive the protection they need.
• Enhanced public health strategies
  Insights into vaccination trends helped pinpoint regions with the lowest uptake, such as rural municipalities, where coverage was as low as 0.6%. These findings guided targeted strategies to address disparities and optimize vaccine distribution.

Additionally, the forecast of approximately 935 children per month initiating chickenpox vaccination over the next decade highlights areas where public health campaigns and resources could have the most significant impact​.

If you’re looking to uncover actionable insights for a Real-World Evidence project like this, let’s talk. Reach out to learn how we can support your strategic goals with data-driven recommendations tailored to your market.